NFL picks · 2026 Week 10 · Sunday, November 15
Patriots vs Lions — in progress
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions, NFL Week 10. The game is under way. Picks are graded here as soon as it goes final.
In progress
NE 3 · DET 28
The model's pick: Detroit Lions by 2.4.
The safest side and the value bet on this game are on the members' board while it is being played. They are posted here for everyone, with the result, as soon as the game goes final.
What we projected before kickoff
Detroit Lions 27, New England Patriots 25
Projected margin
DET −2.4
market: DET −2.5
Projected total
52
market: 51.0
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
DET -3 →DET -2.5
first posted, then the close
Total
51.5 →51
first posted, then the close
DET moneyline
-148 →-138
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 10
The rest of the week
| Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals | Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET |
| Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals | Sun Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET |
| Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders | Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET |
| San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys | Sun Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens | Mon Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET |
| Washington Commanders at New York Giants | WAS 24 · NYG 21 |