Bills vs Jets prediction
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, NFL Week 10. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Bills 30, Jets 20
Bills by 10.2 · 49 total points
The model projects Buffalo Bills to beat New York Jets 30–20; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 7.5. On the total, the model's 49 sits below the market's 51.0. The raw model gives Buffalo Bills a 82.4% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 79.7%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Nov 10; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | ████████████ |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | ████████████ |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | ████████████ |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | ████████████ |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | QB | ████████████ |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | ████████████ |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | NYJ | WR | ████████████ |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 11 tickets on the board this week: Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, -241); Safe stack · 3 moneylines (3 legs, -141); Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +133); Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +242); +1000 ticket (6 legs, +1046) and 6 more.
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Spencer Brown T | Doubtful | Ankle |
| BUF | Christian Benford CB | Questionable | Wrist |
| BUF | Jordan Hancock CB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| BUF | Sam Franklin Jr. S | Questionable | Shoulder |
| BUF | Tyrell Shavers WR | Questionable | Knee |
| BUF | Ed Oliver DE | Practice only | Not injury related - resting player |
| BUF | Terrel Bernard LB | Practice only | Not injury related - resting player |
| NYJ | Trevin Wallace LB | Out | Groin |
| NYJ | Adonai Mitchell WR | Questionable | Knee |
| NYJ | Garrett Wilson WR | Questionable | Concussion |
| NYJ | Harrison Phillips DT | Questionable | Ankle |
| NYJ | Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB | Questionable | Illness |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-11-15).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Bills vs Jets?
Buffalo Bills 30, New York Jets 20 — Buffalo Bills by 10.2 points and 49 total points. The market line when the board was built was Buffalo Bills by 7.5 with a total of 51.0.
Who does the model favor to win Bills vs Jets?
Buffalo Bills. The raw model gives them a 82.4% chance; the moneyline price of -455 implies 79.7%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Sun Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET
- Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
- San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys Sun Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens Mon Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET