Vikings vs Packers prediction
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 10. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Packers 24, Vikings 16
Packers by 8.1 · 41 total points
The model projects Green Bay Packers to beat Minnesota Vikings 24–16; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 2.5. On the total, the model's 41 sits below the market's 42.5. The raw model gives Green Bay Packers a 76.4% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 56.9%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
GB ML -200 at BetMGM
In Florida? Hard Rock Bet: -150 — 8¢ behind DraftKings's -142.
The line since we posted it: closed -142 · missed the close by 58¢.
Why this is the free pick, in full → · Get the free pick by email every week
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Nov 10; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. The free pick is open to everyone; the rest stays sealed until you're a member.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | GB ML | -142 DraftKings | 64.7% | 7.8% |
| Value bet | GB ML | -142 DraftKings | 64.7% | 7.8% |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | QB | ████████████ |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | ████████████ |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | ████████████ |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | ████████████ |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | ████████████ |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | ████████████ |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | ████████████ |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 7 tickets on the board this week: Spread & total stack · 3 legs (3 legs, +594); +1000 ticket (6 legs, +1046); +2500 ticket (8 legs, +2562); Moonshot · +5000 (10 legs, +5082); Value stack · 3 legs (3 legs, +541) and 2 more.
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Josh Jacobs RB | Out | Finger |
| GB | Josh Whyle TE | Out | Concussion |
| GB | Micah Parsons LB | Out | Knee |
| GB | Sean Rhyan C | Out | Ankle |
| GB | Zaire Franklin LB | Doubtful | Shin |
| GB | Chris Brooks RB | Questionable | Ankle |
| GB | Javon Bullard S | Questionable | Ankle |
| GB | Kevin Zeitler G | Questionable | Ankle |
| GB | Lukas Van Ness LB | Questionable | Back |
| GB | Skyy Moore WR | Questionable | Ankle |
| GB | Travis Glover G | Questionable | Knee |
| GB | Xavier McKinney S | Questionable | Foot |
- Sources: Vikings want to keep Cousins, talked to QB about staying in 2027 ESPN
- Does Cousins fix Vikings' offense? Should Rams have added? Barnwell on deadline ESPN
- NFC North real or not: Bears a solid favorite? Cousins puts Vikings in command? ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-11-15).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Vikings vs Packers?
Green Bay Packers 24, Minnesota Vikings 16 — Green Bay Packers by 8.1 points and 41 total points. The market line when the board was built was Green Bay Packers by 2.5 with a total of 42.5.
Who does the model favor to win Vikings vs Packers?
Green Bay Packers. The raw model gives them a 76.4% chance; the moneyline price of -142 implies 56.9%. This game carries the week's free pick, GB ML at -200, with a blended probability of 68.9%.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Sun Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET
- Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
- San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys Sun Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens Mon Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET