NFL picks, graded in public
One page per week: the free pick and the reasoning behind it, the sealed board members see, and — once the games are played — how every pick landed. The model is a secret. The record isn't.
Every free pick, and how it landed
Free picks this season: 9–4, +0.64 units at one unit a pick. Every one is listed — none are dropped.
| Week | Free pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Week 9 | CIN ML CIN @ ATL | -155 | 64.8% | not played yetnow -155 · same number |
| 2026 · Week 8 board: safest bets 4–1, value bets 7–6 |
PIT ML CLE @ PIT | -180 | 67.0% | WIN CLE 6 – PIT 27closed -180 · same number |
| SEA ML CHI @ SEA | -170 | 64.3% | LOSS CHI 34 – SEA 17closed -170 · same number | |
| 2026 · Week 7 board: safest bets 4–1, value bets 8–5 |
LA ML LA @ LV | -210 | 70.2% | WIN LA 35 – LV 21closed -168 · missed the close by 42¢ |
| PHI ML DAL @ PHI | +190 | 37.0% | LOSS DAL 38 – PHI 21closed +190 · same number | |
| 2026 · Week 6 board: safest bets 3–2, value bets 4–7 |
BUF ML BUF @ LV | -225 | 73.4% | WIN BUF 33 – LV 30closed -230 · beat the close by 5¢ |
| 2026 · Week 5 board: safest bets 4–1, value bets 9–5 |
NE ML LV @ NE | -192 | 68.7% | WIN LV 17 – NE 45closed -185 · missed the close by 7¢ |
| 2026 · Week 4 board: safest bets 4–1, value bets 7–7 |
CHI ML NYJ @ CHI | -175 | 68.8% | WIN NYJ 12 – CHI 23closed -178 · beat the close by 3¢ |
| SF ML DEN @ SF | -152 | 60.8% | WIN DEN 14 – SF 24closed -152 · same number | |
| ATL ML ATL @ NO | +107 | 48.7% | WIN ATL 45 – NO 24closed +107 · same number | |
| 2026 · Week 3 board: safest bets 4–1, value bets 8–8 |
NO ML LV @ NO | -168 | 67.2% | LOSS LV 35 – NO 27closed -175 · beat the close by 7¢ |
| 2026 · Week 2 board: safest bets 2–3, value bets 5–11 |
SF ML | -910 | 83.3% | WIN MIA 13 – SF 35 |
| Over 48 NYG @ LA | -108 | 54.1% | LOSS NYG 6 – LA 28closed 47.5 -105 · missed the close by 0.5 pts | |
| 2026 · Week 1 board: safest bets 4–1, value bets 6–9 |
JAX ML | -425 | 83.7% | WIN CLE 10 – JAX 34 |
What hit last week
These are the highlights, not the record. The whole week — every loss included — is one click away: Week 8, pick by pick →
The whole board, in units
The record is graded the way the board is presented: the safest bets are the 5 highest-probability sides each week — the ones the Safest tab leads with — and the value bets are every play where our number beat the price. The model's call in each of the week's other games is listed too, under winners called, and every multi-leg ticket sits in long shots below, so no parlay record is ever blended into a win rate.
One unit per bet at the published price. 119 games is a small sample; it says little either way yet, and it stays posted regardless.
Card of the week: 11–18–1, -13.07 units. Every card, play by play →
Long shots
Multi-leg tickets pay big and hit rarely — that is the point of them, and it is why they are graded on their own line and never folded into a win percentage. One unit per ticket at the listed price.
| Ticket | Record | Units | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win + kicker singles | 11–24 | -7.79 | the safest side to win plus that team's kicker to make two field goals · top 3 a week |
| Parlays | 9–27 | -20.26 | 2–5 legs from the safest sides |
| Parlay of the week | 0–9 | -9.00 | the board's headline ticket |
| Wildcard parlay | 0–10 | -10.00 | the longer build |
| Recommended parlays | 18–76 | -36.88 | safe stacks, builds and big tickets |
| Consensus tickets | 0–5 | -5.00 | legs where the model and public expert picks agree |
| Win + kicker parlays | 0–29 | -29.00 | two to five win + kicker combos |
| Lottery tickets | 0–8 | -8.00 | the touchdown long shot, about 1 in 100 |
Against the closing line
Wins and losses take hundreds of bets to mean anything. Beating the closing line shows up sooner: if the price we posted is better than the market's last price before kickoff, the market moved our way. Counted from the first version of each pick we published, against our final refresh before the game.