Upside ticket · CHI @ SEA · Mon Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET · 3 legs, same-game at Hard Rock Bet
Lost · placed
- Leg 1: sealed · hit
- Leg 2: sealed · hit
- Leg 3: sealed · missed
Legs, prices, the floor and the hit rate are for members. See plans →
Black Box Edge · NFL Week 9 · prices as of Tue Nov 3 · 1:53 PM ET
One ticket every window. Graded against the close.
The Black Box Edge Bet is one ticket per NFL window — Thursday night, Sunday, Monday night — built by the engine from the bets that have paid as singles, priced at Hard Rock Bet with a floor on every leg, and graded against the closing line after the game. Edge also records every price at every legal US book from the opener on (25 snapshots since Nov 2), so the line moves and the Hard Rock check further down are free to everyone.
Members see the legs, the prices, the floors, the hit rate and the closing-line grade on every ticket. Everyone sees the record.
The record
Edge Bets this season
Tickets
1-1
+2.10u at one unit a ticket, Hard Rock price
Legs · beat the close
Members
each leg graded against the closing line
Closing-line value is the scorecard that doesn't need luck: a leg priced better than where the market closed was a good bet whether or not it cashed. A record that beats the close and loses is variance; one that misses the close and wins is a warning. One unit = the stake on the ticket at the Hard Rock price; the record starts from the first ticket and stays up either way.
Moving now
Where the market has moved most
BUF at MIN · Mon Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET
BUF ML: -155 → -180
+4.1 probability points since the opener
NYG at PHI · Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
PHI ML: +135 → +150
-3.5 probability points since the opener
DEN at CAR · Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
CAR spread: +100 → -110 (+2.5 → +3)
+2.8 probability points since the opener
GB at NE · Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
GB spread: -105 → -110 (+2.5 → +3)
+2.3 probability points since the opener
CIN at ATL · Sun Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET
ATL ML: +145 → +140
+2.0 probability points since the opener
A move is measured on the market's consensus price, de-vigged, from our first snapshot to the latest. Two points or more is worth noticing; most of it comes from the books trimming a number as money arrives.
Every ticket
Every Edge Bet
Engine ticket · CHI @ SEA · Mon Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET · 2 legs, same-game at Hard Rock Bet
WON
- Leg 1: sealed · hit
- Leg 2: sealed · hit
Legs, prices, the floor and the hit rate are for members. See plans →
Every game · open → now
Line moves and the Hard Rock check
For each side: where the line opened in our record, where it is now, Hard Rock's price, the best price anywhere at the same number, and the market's move in probability points. Florida bettors can only use Hard Rock — the gap column is what that costs on each side.
JAX at BALJacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Thu Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX Moneyline | -425 → -475 | -475 | -475 BetMGM |
+1.3 |
| BAL Moneyline | +325 → +350 | +350 35¢ behind |
+385 FanDuel |
-1.2 |
| JAX Spread | -8 -110 → -9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 2¢ behind |
-9.5 -108 DraftKings |
+0.1 |
| BAL Spread | +8 -110 → +9.5 -110 | +9.5 -110 | +9.5 -110 FanDuel |
+0.2 |
| Over Total | 43 -115 → 42.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 8¢ behind |
42.5 -105 DraftKings |
+0.5 |
| Under Total | 43 -105 → 42.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 Hard Rock Bet |
+0.0 |
Biggest move: JAX ML: -425 → -475 (+1.3 pts).
CIN at ATLCincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Sun Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN Moneyline | -170 → -165 | -165 4¢ behind |
-155 ESPN Bet |
-1.4 |
| ATL Moneyline | +145 → +140 | +140 10¢ behind |
+150 Bally Bet |
+2.0 |
| CIN Spread | -3 -115 → -3 -110 | -3 -110 4¢ behind |
-3 -105 ESPN Bet |
-0.2 |
| ATL Spread | +3 -105 → +3 -110 | +3 -110 4¢ behind |
+3 -105 Bally Bet |
-0.2 |
| Over Total | 51 -115 → 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 3¢ behind |
51.5 -107 Bally Bet |
+0.5 |
| Under Total | 51 -105 → 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 4¢ behind |
51.5 -105 FanDuel |
-0.8 |
Biggest move: ATL ML: +145 → +140 (+2.0 pts).
DEN at CARDenver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Moneyline | -145 → -155 | -155 3¢ behind |
-148 Bally Bet |
+0.3 |
| CAR Moneyline | +125 → +135 | +135 | +135 Hard Rock Bet |
-0.8 |
| DEN Spread | -2.5 -120 → -3 -110 | -3 -110 9¢ behind |
-3 +100 DraftKings |
-2.6 |
| CAR Spread | +2.5 +100 → +3 -110 | +3 -110 | +3 -110 Hard Rock Bet |
+2.8 |
| Over Total | 43.5 -115 → 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 Fanatics |
-0.2 |
| Under Total | 43.5 -105 → 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 5¢ behind |
43.5 -104 FanDuel |
+0.3 |
Biggest move: CAR spread: +100 → -110 (+2.5 → +3) (+2.8 pts).
CLE at NOCleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE Moneyline | +130 → +125 | +125 | +125 BetMGM |
+0.8 |
| NO Moneyline | -150 → -145 | -145 2¢ behind |
-140 ESPN Bet |
-0.8 |
| CLE Spread | +3 -115 → +2.5 -105 | +2.5 -105 2¢ behind |
+2.5 -103 Bally Bet |
-1.9 |
| NO Spread | -3 -105 → -2.5 -115 | -2.5 -115 4¢ behind |
-2.5 -110 BetMGM |
+1.9 |
| Over Total | 43 -115 → 43 -115 | 43 -115 8¢ behind |
43.5 -105 BetMGM |
-0.9 |
| Under Total | 43 -105 → 43 -105 | 43 -105 | 43.5 -112 BetMGM |
+1.1 |
Biggest move: NO spread: -105 → -115 (-3 → -2.5) (+1.9 pts).
DET at MIADetroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET Moneyline | -325 → -325 | -325 | -325 BetMGM |
+0.1 |
| MIA Moneyline | +260 → +260 | +260 20¢ behind |
+280 DraftKings |
+0.4 |
| DET Spread | -7 -110 → -7 -110 | -7 -110 9¢ behind |
-7 +100 ESPN Bet |
+0.1 |
| MIA Spread | +7 -110 → +7 -110 | +7 -110 4¢ behind |
+7 -105 Bally Bet |
-0.3 |
| Over Total | 49.5 -115 → 50 -110 | 50 -110 1¢ behind |
50 -109 Bally Bet |
-0.8 |
| Under Total | 49.5 -105 → 50 -110 | 50 -110 | 50 -110 Fanatics |
+0.5 |
Biggest move: Over total: -115 → -110 (49.5 → 50) (-0.8 pts).
LA at WASLos Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders
Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Moneyline | -250 → -260 | -260 4¢ behind |
-235 BetMGM |
-0.2 |
| WAS Moneyline | +200 → +210 | +210 | +210 FanDuel |
+0.0 |
| LA Spread | -5.5 -115 → -6 -110 | -6 -110 4¢ behind |
-6 -105 BetMGM |
+0.0 |
| WAS Spread | +5.5 -105 → +6 -110 | +6 -110 | +6 -110 Hard Rock Bet |
+0.2 |
| Over Total | 48 -110 → 47.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 8¢ behind |
47.5 -105 Fanatics |
-0.2 |
| Under Total | 48 -110 → 47.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 ESPN Bet |
+0.2 |
Biggest move: Under total: -110 → -105 (48 → 47.5) (+0.2 pts).
NYG at PHINew York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG Moneyline | -155 → -180 | -180 4¢ behind |
-167 Bally Bet |
+3.5 |
| PHI Moneyline | +135 → +150 | +150 10¢ behind |
+160 ESPN Bet |
-3.5 |
| NYG Spread | -3 -110 → -3.5 -105 | -3.5 -105 5¢ behind |
-3.5 +100 Fanatics |
-0.6 |
| PHI Spread | +3 -110 → +3.5 -115 | +3.5 -115 | +3.5 -115 Bally Bet |
+0.5 |
| Over Total | 40 -110 → 40 -110 | 40 -110 4¢ behind |
40.5 -105 DraftKings |
-0.2 |
| Under Total | 40 -110 → 40 -110 | 40 -110 | 40.5 -110 Fanatics |
+0.4 |
Biggest move: PHI ML: +135 → +150 (-3.5 pts).
DAL at INDDallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Moneyline | -260 → -260 | -260 2¢ behind |
-250 BetMGM |
+0.0 |
| IND Moneyline | +210 → +210 | +210 15¢ behind |
+225 Bally Bet |
+0.0 |
| DAL Spread | -5.5 -110 → -6 -110 | -6 -110 | -5.5 -113 Bally Bet |
+0.3 |
| IND Spread | +5.5 -110 → +6 -110 | +6 -110 4¢ behind |
+5.5 -105 ESPN Bet |
+0.0 |
| Over Total | 51.5 -110 → 52 -110 | 52 -110 2¢ behind |
51.5 -108 BetMGM |
+0.0 |
| Under Total | 51.5 -110 → 52 -110 | 52 -110 | 51.5 -110 BetMGM |
+0.0 |
Biggest move: DAL spread: -110 → -110 (-5.5 → -6) (+0.3 pts).
NYJ at KCNew York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ Moneyline | +350 → +350 | +350 40¢ behind |
+390 FanDuel |
+0.1 |
| KC Moneyline | -500 → -475 | -475 1¢ behind |
-450 BetMGM |
-0.3 |
| NYJ Spread | +9 +100 → +9.5 -110 | +9.5 -110 2¢ behind |
+9.5 -108 DraftKings |
+0.0 |
| KC Spread | -9 -115 → -9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 4¢ behind |
-9.5 -105 FanDuel |
+0.0 |
| Over Total | 46 -110 → 46 -110 | 46 -110 | 46 -110 BetMGM |
+0.0 |
| Under Total | 46 -110 → 46 -110 | 46 -110 2¢ behind |
46 -108 BetMGM |
-0.1 |
Biggest move: KC ML: -500 → -475 (-0.3 pts).
HOU at LACHouston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Moneyline | -230 → -225 | -225 6¢ behind |
-198 DraftKings |
+0.2 |
| LAC Moneyline | +190 → +185 | +185 5¢ behind |
+190 ESPN Bet |
-0.4 |
| HOU Spread | -5 -110 → -4.5 -110 | -4.5 -110 | -4.5 -110 Fanatics |
+0.4 |
| LAC Spread | +5 -110 → +4.5 -110 | +4.5 -110 4¢ behind |
+4.5 -105 DraftKings |
+0.2 |
| Over Total | 42 -110 → 40.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 Fanatics |
-0.2 |
| Under Total | 42 -110 → 40.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 4¢ behind |
40.5 -105 BetMGM |
+0.2 |
Biggest move: HOU spread: -110 → -110 (-5 → -4.5) (+0.4 pts).
LV at SFLas Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV Moneyline | +350 → +400 | +400 40¢ behind |
+440 FanDuel |
-0.9 |
| SF Moneyline | -500 → -550 | -550 2¢ behind |
-500 BetMGM |
+1.0 |
| LV Spread | +9 -110 → +10 -110 | +10 -110 7¢ behind |
+9.5 -102 FanDuel |
+0.1 |
| SF Spread | -9 -110 → -10 -110 | -10 -110 | -9.5 -112 Bally Bet |
+0.0 |
| Over Total | 51.5 -110 → 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 BetMGM |
+0.0 |
| Under Total | 51.5 -110 → 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 4¢ behind |
51.5 -105 DraftKings |
-0.1 |
Biggest move: SF ML: -500 → -550 (+1.0 pts).
ARI at SEAArizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI Moneyline | +475 → +450 | +450 75¢ behind |
+525 Bally Bet |
+1.0 |
| SEA Moneyline | -750 → -650 | -650 1¢ behind |
-625 BetMGM |
-1.3 |
| ARI Spread | +11 -110 → +11 -110 | +11 -110 | +11 -110 Fanatics |
+0.2 |
| SEA Spread | -11 -110 → -11 -110 | -11 -110 4¢ behind |
-11 -105 BetMGM |
-0.1 |
| Over Total | 45 -110 → 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 9¢ behind |
44.5 +100 ESPN Bet |
-0.7 |
| Under Total | 45 -110 → 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 BetMGM |
+0.7 |
Biggest move: SEA ML: -750 → -650 (-1.3 pts).
GB at NEGreen Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB Moneyline | +125 → +135 | +135 | +135 Hard Rock Bet |
-0.9 |
| NE Moneyline | -145 → -155 | -155 2¢ behind |
-150 Bally Bet |
+0.7 |
| GB Spread | +2.5 -105 → +3 -110 | +3 -110 | +3 -110 Hard Rock Bet |
+2.3 |
| NE Spread | -2.5 -115 → -3 -110 | -3 -110 9¢ behind |
-3 +100 ESPN Bet |
-2.0 |
| Over Total | 47 -115 → 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 2¢ behind |
46.5 -112 FanDuel |
+1.3 |
| Under Total | 47 -105 → 46.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 DraftKings |
-1.1 |
Biggest move: GB spread: -105 → -110 (+2.5 → +3) (+2.3 pts).
TB at CHITampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Sun Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB Moneyline | +220 → +220 | +220 20¢ behind |
+240 ESPN Bet |
+0.0 |
| CHI Moneyline | -260 → -275 | -275 1¢ behind |
-270 DraftKings |
+0.4 |
| TB Spread | +5.5 -110 → +6 -110 | +6 -110 2¢ behind |
+6 -108 DraftKings |
+0.5 |
| CHI Spread | -5.5 -110 → -6 -110 | -6 -110 | -6 -110 Fanatics |
-0.7 |
| Over Total | 46.5 -115 → 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 2¢ behind |
46.5 -108 DraftKings |
-0.2 |
| Under Total | 46.5 -105 → 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 4¢ behind |
46.5 -105 ESPN Bet |
-0.1 |
Biggest move: CHI spread: -110 → -110 (-5.5 → -6) (-0.7 pts).
BUF at MINBuffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Mon Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET
| Side | Open → now | Hard Rock Florida | Best | Move pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF Moneyline | -155 → -180 | -180 3¢ behind |
-170 ESPN Bet |
+4.1 |
| MIN Moneyline | +130 → +150 | +150 5¢ behind |
+155 BetMGM |
-3.1 |
| BUF Spread | -3 -105 → -3.5 -105 | -3.5 -105 | -3 -115 ESPN Bet |
+1.2 |
| MIN Spread | +3 -115 → +3.5 -115 | +3.5 -115 8¢ behind |
+3 -105 Bally Bet |
-1.4 |
| Over Total | 46.5 -110 → 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 5¢ behind |
46.5 -104 FanDuel |
+0.4 |
| Under Total | 46.5 -110 → 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 4¢ behind |
46.5 -105 ESPN Bet |
-0.5 |
Biggest move: BUF ML: -155 → -180 (+4.1 pts).
Questions
How Edge works
What is the Black Box Edge Bet?
One ticket per NFL window — Thursday night, Sunday, Monday night — built by the engine from the kinds of bets that have paid as singles: a kicker on an offence that stalls, a moneyline no shorter than -200 with a real edge, a volume prop with the game script on its side, an interception prop on a quarterback who throws them. Two or three legs, priced at Hard Rock Bet with a floor on every leg — below the floor the bet is off and the legs are bet straight. It locks at kickoff; after the game each leg is graded against the closing line and the ticket goes on the record whether it won or lost.
What is Edge, in one paragraph?
The model prices games; Edge prices the market. It keeps a record of every price at every legal US sportsbook from the opener on, so a bet can be judged on the only thing that is known before kickoff: was the price better than the market's final word? Members get the tickets the engine builds from that record — with the floor price on each leg, so a worse number at the window means pass — and a grade against the close after the game.
What is closing-line value?
The difference between the price you got and the price the market closed at. Beating the close consistently is the best evidence a bettor has an edge, because the close is the sharpest number of the week. One game proves nothing; a season of beating the close is what a real record looks like. That is why members' tickets are graded on it, not only on wins and losses.
Why is Hard Rock singled out?
Because in Florida it is the only legal online book. A Florida bettor cannot shop for the best price, so the useful question is how far behind the market Hard Rock's number is on a given side — and whether the bet still clears its floor at that price.
How often does it update?
Every morning with the board refresh, again before the Thursday, Sunday and Monday kickoffs, and at the close. Prices shown here are from the last refresh; check the book before you bet.
Is this advice?
No. Black Box Bets publishes analysis for entertainment and information; it takes no wagers and promises no outcome. Analysis, not guarantees.