49ers vs Cowboys prediction
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 10. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
49ers 31, Cowboys 25
49ers by 5.6 · 56 total points
The model projects San Francisco 49ers to beat Dallas Cowboys 31–25; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 4. On the total, the model's 56 sits above the market's 55.5. The raw model gives San Francisco 49ers a 70.4% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 66.3%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Nov 10; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | not on the board this week | |||
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | ████████████ |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | ████████████ |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | ████████████ |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF | WR | ████████████ |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | ████████████ |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | ████████████ |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | ████████████ |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 5 tickets on the board this week: Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +242); +1000 ticket (6 legs, +1046); +2500 ticket (8 legs, +2562); Moonshot · +5000 (10 legs, +5082); Wildcard parlay (7 legs, +1501).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Donovan Ezeiruaku LB | Out | Ankle |
| DAL | Jake Ferguson TE | Out | Knee |
| DAL | Jonathan Mingo WR | Out | Ankle |
| DAL | P.J. Locke S | Out | Concussion |
| DAL | Tyler Goodson RB | Out | Ankle |
| DAL | Juanyeh Thomas S | Doubtful | Hamstring |
| DAL | Alijah Clark S | Questionable | Illness |
| DAL | DaRon Bland CB | Questionable | Ankle |
| DAL | Devin Moore CB | Questionable | Hip |
| DAL | Joey Porter Jr. CB | Questionable | Ankle |
| DAL | Jonathan Bullard DT | Questionable | Calf |
| DAL | Malik Hooker S | Practice only | Not injury related - personal matter |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-11-15).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for 49ers vs Cowboys?
San Francisco 49ers 31, Dallas Cowboys 25 — San Francisco 49ers by 5.6 points and 56 total points. The market line when the board was built was San Francisco 49ers by 4 with a total of 55.5.
Who does the model favor to win 49ers vs Cowboys?
San Francisco 49ers. The raw model gives them a 70.4% chance; the moneyline price of -215 implies 66.3%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Sun Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET
- Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens Mon Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET