Texans vs Browns prediction
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns, NFL Week 10. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Texans 22, Browns 18
Texans by 3.8 · 40 total points
The model projects Houston Texans to beat Cleveland Browns 22–18; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3.5. On the total, the model's 40 sits below the market's 40.5. The raw model gives Houston Texans a 64.6% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 64.6%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Nov 10; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | not on the board this week | |||
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | ████████████ |
| Woody Marks | HOU | RB | ████████████ |
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | ████████████ |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | ████████████ |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | ████████████ |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | ████████████ |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | ████████████ |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 7 tickets on the board this week: Win + kicker · safest ML + 2 FGs (2 legs, -132); +1000 ticket (6 legs, +1046); +2500 ticket (8 legs, +2562); Moonshot · +5000 (10 legs, +5082); Moderate · 3 games (6 legs, +710) and 2 more.
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Michael Burton FB | Out | Calf |
| CLE | Ronnie Hickman Jr. S | Out | Concussion |
| CLE | Denzel Boston WR | Questionable | Toe |
| CLE | Denzel Ward CB | Practice only | Quadricep |
| CLE | Donovan McMillon S | Practice only | Hip |
| HOU | Azeez Al-Shaair LB | Out | Groin |
| HOU | Brevin Jordan TE | Out | Finger |
| HOU | Danielle Hunter DE | Out | Hamstring |
| HOU | Keylan Rutledge G | Out | Neck |
| HOU | Marvin Harrison Jr. WR | Out | Hamstring |
| HOU | Braden Smith OT | Questionable | Illness |
| HOU | David Montgomery RB | Questionable | Groin |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-11-15).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Texans vs Browns?
Houston Texans 22, Cleveland Browns 18 — Houston Texans by 3.8 points and 40 total points. The market line when the board was built was Houston Texans by 3.5 with a total of 40.5.
Who does the model favor to win Texans vs Browns?
Houston Texans. The raw model gives them a 64.6% chance; the moneyline price of -198 implies 64.6%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Sun Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET
- Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
- San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys Sun Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens Mon Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET