Kicker board
Expected field goals for every kicker still to play this week. The model projects each team's attempts from its offence and the defence it faces, multiplies by the kicker's make rate (pulled toward the league average so a hot month doesn't fool it), and turns that into the chance of one, two or three makes.
| Kicker | Team | Opp | Exp. FG | Make rate | 1+ FG | 2+ FG | 3+ FG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stevens | WAS | LA | 3.08 | 84.5% | 95.4% | 81.3% | 59.5% |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU | LAC | 2.72 | 93.6% | 93.4% | 75.5% | 51.2% |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | IND | 2.56 | 80.2% | 92.3% | 72.6% | 47.3% |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | MIN | 2.56 | 94.5% | 92.3% | 72.5% | 47.2% |
| Matt Gay | LV | SF | 2.53 | 86.5% | 92.0% | 71.9% | 46.4% |
| Dominic Zvada | NYG | PHI | 2.36 | 73.0% | 90.6% | 68.3% | 42.1% |
| Jason Sanders | NYJ | KC | 2.34 | 88.6% | 90.4% | 67.8% | 41.4% |
| Andre Szmyt | CLE | NO | 2.16 | 87.2% | 88.5% | 63.5% | 36.6% |
| Will Reichard | MIN | BUF | 2.08 | 87.8% | 87.5% | 61.5% | 34.5% |
| Jason Myers | SEA | ARI | 2.03 | 84.9% | 86.9% | 60.2% | 33.2% |
| Chad Ryland | ARI | SEA | 2.01 | 89.1% | 86.6% | 59.8% | 32.7% |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | HOU | 1.99 | 89.0% | 86.3% | 59.1% | 32.1% |
| Spencer Shrader | IND | DAL | 1.93 | 86.6% | 85.4% | 57.4% | 30.4% |
| Ryan Fitzgerald | CAR | DEN | 1.85 | 93.8% | 84.3% | 55.2% | 28.3% |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | CHI | 1.75 | 95.5% | 82.6% | 52.1% | 25.5% |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | TB | 1.67 | 79.2% | 81.1% | 49.7% | 23.4% |
| Jake Bates | DET | MIA | 1.67 | 87.1% | 81.1% | 49.7% | 23.4% |
| Trey Smack | GB | NE | 1.58 | 72.4% | 79.5% | 47.0% | 21.2% |
| Cam Little | JAX | BAL | 1.52 | 87.2% | 78.1% | 44.8% | 19.5% |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | CAR | 1.50 | 85.6% | 77.7% | 44.3% | 19.2% |
| Harrison Butker | KC | NYJ | 1.42 | 70.9% | 75.8% | 41.5% | 17.1% |
| Nick Folk | ATL | CIN | 1.41 | 81.0% | 75.6% | 41.2% | 16.9% |
| Zane Gonzalez | MIA | DET | 1.37 | 81.2% | 74.5% | 39.7% | 15.8% |
| Daniel Carlson | NO | CLE | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.8% | 37.4% | 14.4% |
| Brandon McManus | LA | WAS | 1.30 | 87.8% | 72.7% | 37.2% | 14.2% |
| Evan McPherson | CIN | ATL | 1.16 | 94.4% | 68.6% | 32.3% | 11.2% |
| Tyler Loop | BAL | JAX | 1.13 | 77.8% | 67.8% | 31.3% | 10.7% |
| Eddy Pineiro | SF | LV | 0.92 | 77.4% | 60.1% | 23.5% | 6.6% |
| Andy Borregales | NE | GB | 0.89 | 78.5% | 58.8% | 22.3% | 6.1% |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | NYG | 0.71 | 78.6% | 51.0% | 16.0% | 3.6% |
30 kickers across 15 games, board of 2026-11-03. Projections are estimates, not promises: weather, a change at kicker and game script all move field-goal counts. Members also see the sportsbook price and expected value on each kicker's 2+ line, and the win + kicker combos built from them.
Using kicker projections
Why bet kickers at all?
Kicker field-goal props get far less attention from sportsbooks and bettors than sides and totals, so the prices tend to be softer. A kicker on a good offence that stalls in the red zone, against a defence that bends but doesn't break, is the profile that produces three-field-goal games.
What does "expected field goals" mean?
The average number of makes if this game were played many times. 1.9 expected makes does not mean two are likely — it means two or more happens a bit under 60% of the time, which is the number that matters for an over 1.5 bet.
What is the win + kicker parlay?
A same-game parlay of a team to win and its kicker to make two or more field goals. The two are linked — winning teams kick more — which is why books shade the price. The members' board carries the combos the model likes each week.