NFL picks · 2026 Week 10 · Thursday, November 12
Commanders vs Giants — final
Washington Commanders at New York Giants, NFL Week 10. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
WAS 24 · NYG 21
The model's pick: New York Giants by 2.9 — wrong.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 41 safest side | -105 | 57.5% | WIN |
| Over 41 value bet | -105 | 57.5% | WIN |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
What we projected before kickoff
New York Giants 25, Washington Commanders 22
Projected margin
NYG −2.9
market: NYG −1.5 · actual: WAS by 3
Projected total
47
market: 41.0 · actual: 45
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
NYG -1.5
never moved
Total
43 →41
first posted, then the close
NYG moneyline
-125 →-120
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 10
The rest of the week
| Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals | Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET |
| Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers | Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals | Sun Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET |
| Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders | Sun Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET |
| San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys | Sun Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens | Mon Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET |
| New England Patriots at Detroit Lions | in progress |