NFL picks · 2026 Week 8 · Sunday, November 1

Patriots vs Dolphins — final

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 8. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.

Final

NE 24 · MIA 19

The model's pick: New England Patriots by 7.5 — correct.

Pick	Price	Our probability	Result
NE ML safest side	-320	75.0%	WINclosed -320 · missed the close by 50¢
Over 41.5 value bet	-105	55.0%	WIN

Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →

What we projected before kickoff

New England Patriots 27, Miami Dolphins 19

Projected margin

NE −7.5

market: NE −7 · actual: NE by 5

Projected total

market: 41.5 · actual: 43

A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.

Where the line went

Spread

NE -7.5 →NE -7

first posted, then the close

Total

44.5 →41.5

first posted, then the close

NE moneyline

-370 →-320

first posted, then the close

First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).

This week's free pick Week 8, every pick

NFL Week 8

The rest of the week

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks	Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers	CAR 19 · GB 27
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys	ARI 33 · DAL 30
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	ATL 0 · TB 16
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills	BAL 10 · BUF 36
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers	CLE 6 · PIT 27
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars	IND 7 · JAX 42
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos	KC 24 · DEN 28
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams	LAC 9 · LA 24
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets	LV 38 · NYJ 33
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions	MIN 15 · DET 19
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders	PHI 10 · WAS 27
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals	TEN 36 · CIN 43