NFL picks · 2026 Week 8 · Sunday, November 1

Falcons vs Buccaneers — final

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL Week 8. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.

Final

ATL 0 · TB 16

The model's pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1.4 — correct.

Pick	Price	Our probability	Result
TB ML safest side	-130	54.3%	WINclosed -130 · same number
Over 43.5 value bet	-102	50.8%	LOSS

Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →

What we projected before kickoff

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, Atlanta Falcons 22

Projected margin

TB −1.4

market: TB −2 · actual: TB by 16

Projected total

market: 43.5 · actual: 16

A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.

Where the line went

Spread

TB -2.5 →TB -2

first posted, then the close

Total

45.5 →43.5

first posted, then the close

TB moneyline

-130

never moved

First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).

This week's free pick Week 8, every pick

NFL Week 8

The rest of the week

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks	Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers	CAR 19 · GB 27
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys	ARI 33 · DAL 30
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills	BAL 10 · BUF 36
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers	CLE 6 · PIT 27
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars	IND 7 · JAX 42
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos	KC 24 · DEN 28
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams	LAC 9 · LA 24
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets	LV 38 · NYJ 33
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions	MIN 15 · DET 19
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins	NE 24 · MIA 19
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders	PHI 10 · WAS 27
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals	TEN 36 · CIN 43