NFL picks · 2026 Week 8 · Sunday, November 1
Chiefs vs Broncos — final
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, NFL Week 8. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
KC 24 · DEN 28
The model's pick: Denver Broncos by 1.5 — correct.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN +1 safest side | -108 | 53.3% | WIN |
| Over 41.5 value bet | +100 | 52.1% | WIN |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
What we projected before kickoff
Denver Broncos 23, Kansas City Chiefs 21
Projected margin
DEN −1.5
market: KC −1 · actual: DEN by 4
Projected total
44
market: 41.5 · actual: 52
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
KC -1.5 →KC -1
first posted, then the close
Total
40.5 →41.5
first posted, then the close
KC moneyline
-120 →-110
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 8
The rest of the week
| Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks | Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET |
| Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers | CAR 19 · GB 27 |
| Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys | ARI 33 · DAL 30 |
| Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ATL 0 · TB 16 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills | BAL 10 · BUF 36 |
| Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers | CLE 6 · PIT 27 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | IND 7 · JAX 42 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams | LAC 9 · LA 24 |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets | LV 38 · NYJ 33 |
| Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | MIN 15 · DET 19 |
| New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | NE 24 · MIA 19 |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders | PHI 10 · WAS 27 |
| Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals | TEN 36 · CIN 43 |