Bears vs Seahawks prediction
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 8. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Chicago Bears 34 · Seattle Seahawks 17
Winner called by the model: NO — the projection was Seattle Seahawks by 5.6.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | SEA ML safest side | -170 | 64.3% |
| LOSS | SEA ML value bet | -170 | 64.3% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Seahawks 26, Bears 21
Seahawks by 5.6 · 47 total points
The model projects Seattle Seahawks to beat Chicago Bears 26–21; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3. On the total, the model's 47 sits above the market's 46.5. The raw model gives Seattle Seahawks a 68.9% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 61.2%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
SEA ML -170 at DraftKings
The line since we posted it: closed -170 · same number.
Why this is the free pick, in full → · Get the free pick by email every week
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Oct 27; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. The free pick is open to everyone; the rest stays sealed until you're a member.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | SEA ML | -170 DraftKings | 64.3% | 3.1% |
| Value bet | SEA ML | -170 DraftKings | 64.3% | 3.1% |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | ████████████ |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | ████████████ |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | ████████████ |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | ████████████ |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | ████████████ |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | ████████████ |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | ████████████ |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 3 tickets on the board this week: Win + kicker · safest ML + 2 FGs (2 legs, +110); Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, -103); Safe · 2 games (4 legs, +640).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Kyle Monangai RB | Out | Thumb |
| CHI | D'Marco Jackson LB | Questionable | Ankle |
| CHI | Malik Muhammad CB | Questionable | Toe |
| SEA | Charles Cross T | Out | Ankle |
| SEA | Rashid Shaheed WR | Out | Knee |
| SEA | Velus Jones Jr. RB | Out | Hamstring |
| SEA | Uchenna Nwosu LB | Doubtful | Ankle |
| SEA | Anthony Bradford G | Questionable | Knee |
| SEA | Brandon Pili DT | Questionable | Back |
| SEA | Drew Lock QB | Questionable | Elbow |
| SEA | Patrick O'Connell LB | Questionable | Toe |
- A child playcaller? The Bears' Ben Johnson was born for this ESPN
- A year after Rashid Shaheed trade, Seahawks are still waiting for a No. 2 WR to emerge ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-11-02).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Bears vs Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks 26, Chicago Bears 21 — Seattle Seahawks by 5.6 points and 47 total points. The market line when the board was built was Seattle Seahawks by 3 with a total of 46.5.
Who does the model favor to win Bears vs Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks. The raw model gives them a 68.9% chance; the moneyline price of -170 implies 61.2%. This game carries the week's free pick, SEA ML at -170, with a blended probability of 64.3%.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens Thu Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET