NFL picks · 2026 Week 8 · Sunday, November 1
Eagles vs Commanders — final
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, NFL Week 8. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
PHI 10 · WAS 27
The model's pick: Washington Commanders by 1.4 — correct.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS ML safest side | -265 | 63.9% | WINclosed -265 · beat the close by 67¢ |
| PHI ML value bet | +225 | 36.1% | LOSS |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
What we projected before kickoff
Washington Commanders 24, Philadelphia Eagles 23
Projected margin
WAS −1.4
market: WAS −6 · actual: WAS by 17
Projected total
47
market: 40.5 · actual: 37
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
WAS -4 →WAS -6
first posted, then the close
Total
40.5
never moved
WAS moneyline
-198 →-265
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 8
The rest of the week
| Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks | Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET |
| Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers | CAR 19 · GB 27 |
| Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys | ARI 33 · DAL 30 |
| Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ATL 0 · TB 16 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills | BAL 10 · BUF 36 |
| Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers | CLE 6 · PIT 27 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | IND 7 · JAX 42 |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos | KC 24 · DEN 28 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams | LAC 9 · LA 24 |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets | LV 38 · NYJ 33 |
| Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | MIN 15 · DET 19 |
| New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | NE 24 · MIA 19 |
| Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals | TEN 36 · CIN 43 |