NFL picks · 2026 Week 7 · Thursday, October 22
Patriots vs Bears — final
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, NFL Week 7. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
NE 24 · CHI 30
The model's pick: Chicago Bears by 0.6 — correct.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI ML safest side | -154 | 55.8% | WINclosed -154 · missed the close by 1¢ |
| Under 50.5 value bet | -102 | 53.8% | LOSSclosed 50.5 -102 · missed the close by 3¢ |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
What we projected before kickoff
Chicago Bears 24, New England Patriots 23
Projected margin
CHI −0.6
market: CHI −3 · actual: CHI by 6
Projected total
47
market: 50.5 · actual: 54
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
CHI -3
never moved
Total
50.5
never moved
CHI moneyline
-155 →-154
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 7
The rest of the week
| Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens | CIN 35 · BAL 13 |
| Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans | CLE 27 · TEN 24 |
| Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals | DEN 30 · ARI 16 |
| Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | GB 17 · DET 20 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | IND 10 · MIN 16 |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks | KC 3 · SEA 20 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders | LA 35 · LV 21 |
| Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | MIA 28 · NYJ 25 |
| New York Giants at Houston Texans | NYG 27 · HOU 21 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints | PIT 16 · NO 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons | SF 20 · ATL 29 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | TB 43 · CAR 13 |