NFL picks · 2026 Week 7 · Sunday, October 25
49ers vs Falcons — final
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL Week 7. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
SF 20 · ATL 29
The model's pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5.0 — wrong.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF ML safest side | -142 | 61.9% | LOSSclosed -142 · missed the close by 8¢ |
| SF ML value bet | -142 | 61.9% | LOSSclosed -142 · missed the close by 8¢ |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
What we projected before kickoff
San Francisco 49ers 26, Atlanta Falcons 21
Projected margin
SF −5.0
market: SF −2.5 · actual: ATL by 9
Projected total
48
market: 50.0 · actual: 49
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
SF -3 →SF -2.5
first posted, then the close
Total
49.5 →50
first posted, then the close
SF moneyline
-150 →-142
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 7
The rest of the week
| Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET |
| New England Patriots at Chicago Bears | NE 24 · CHI 30 |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens | CIN 35 · BAL 13 |
| Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans | CLE 27 · TEN 24 |
| Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals | DEN 30 · ARI 16 |
| Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | GB 17 · DET 20 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | IND 10 · MIN 16 |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks | KC 3 · SEA 20 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders | LA 35 · LV 21 |
| Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | MIA 28 · NYJ 25 |
| New York Giants at Houston Texans | NYG 27 · HOU 21 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints | PIT 16 · NO 10 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | TB 43 · CAR 13 |