NFL picks · 2026 Week 7 · Sunday, October 25

Packers vs Lions — final

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, NFL Week 7. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.

Final

GB 17 · DET 20

The model's pick: Detroit Lions by 3.8 — correct.

Pick	Price	Our probability	Result
DET ML safest side	-180	62.9%	WINclosed -180 · beat the close by 18¢
Under 55.5 value bet	-110	53.8%	WIN

Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →

What we projected before kickoff

Detroit Lions 28, Green Bay Packers 24

Projected margin

DET −3.8

market: DET −3.5 · actual: DET by 3

Projected total

market: 55.5 · actual: 37

A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.

Where the line went

Spread

DET -3 →DET -3.5

first posted, then the close

Total

53.5 →55.5

first posted, then the close

DET moneyline

-162 →-180

first posted, then the close

First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).

This week's free pick Week 7, every pick

NFL Week 7

The rest of the week

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles	Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears	NE 24 · CHI 30
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens	CIN 35 · BAL 13
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans	CLE 27 · TEN 24
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals	DEN 30 · ARI 16
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings	IND 10 · MIN 16
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks	KC 3 · SEA 20
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders	LA 35 · LV 21
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets	MIA 28 · NYJ 25
New York Giants at Houston Texans	NYG 27 · HOU 21
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints	PIT 16 · NO 10
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons	SF 20 · ATL 29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers	TB 43 · CAR 13