NFL Week 8 picks
Week 8 is in the books. Here is the free pick as it was published, and how every pick on the members' board landed — wins and losses alike, graded at the published price.
SEA ML -170 at DraftKings
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks · Monday, November 2 · 8:15 PM ET · final CHI 34 – SEA 17
The model projects Seattle Seahawks by 5.6 points (21–26, CHI at SEA), with a projected total of 47 against the market's 46.5. The market has Seattle Seahawks favored by 3. On the moneyline the model's raw number gives Seattle Seahawks a 69% chance to win; the price of -170 implies 61.2%. We never bet the raw model — the market is part of the number. Blended, our probability is 64.3%, an edge of 3.1% over the price. That is what makes it the free pick: of the plays still to come on this week's board priced between -250 and +250 whose number beats the price even after the sportsbook's cut, this is the most likely to win.
How it landed: LOSS · CHI 34 – SEA 17
The line since we posted it: closed -170 · same number.
Published 2026-11-02 at the price shown; the pick is kept as published and graded at that price, even if the line moves.
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| Also free this week | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT ML CLE @ PIT | -180 | 67.0% | WIN CLE 6 – PIT 27closed -180 · same number |
Last week: safest bets (top 5) went 4–1, value bets 8–5 (+2.86 units), winners called 8 of 14. Week 7 pick by pick →
How Week 8 landed
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | DAL ML Safest · top 5 | -340 | 71.6% | ARI 33 – DAL 30 |
| WIN | JAX ML Safest · top 5 | -480 | 80.9% | IND 7 – JAX 42 |
| WIN | LA ML Safest · top 5 | -270 | 74.5% | LAC 9 – LA 24 |
| WIN | NE ML Safest · top 5 | -320 | 75.0% | NE 24 – MIA 19 |
| WIN | CIN ML Safest · top 5 | -770 | 86.1% | TEN 36 – CIN 43 |
| LOSS | SEA ML value | -170 | 64.3% | CHI 34 – SEA 17 |
| WIN | ARI ML value | +300 | 28.4% | ARI 33 – DAL 30 |
| LOSS | Over 43.5 value | -102 | 50.8% | ATL 0 – TB 16 |
| WIN | BUF ML value | -162 | 64.9% | BAL 10 – BUF 36 |
| LOSS | Over 39 value | -108 | 55.6% | CLE 6 – PIT 27 |
| WIN | Over 45.5 value | -110 | 53.0% | IND 7 – JAX 42 |
| WIN | Over 41.5 value | +100 | 52.1% | KC 24 – DEN 28 |
| WIN | LA -6.5 value | -109 | 53.5% | LAC 9 – LA 24 |
| LOSS | Under 46.5 value | -108 | 52.5% | LV 38 – NYJ 33 |
| LOSS | MIN ML value | +155 | 41.3% | MIN 15 – DET 19 |
| WIN | Over 41.5 value | -105 | 55.0% | NE 24 – MIA 19 |
| LOSS | PHI ML value | +225 | 36.1% | PHI 10 – WAS 27 |
| WIN | Over 46 value | -108 | 54.1% | TEN 36 – CIN 43 |
The model's side in the other 9 games (not counted in the safest-bets record)
| Result | Model's side | Price | Our probability | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | SEA ML | -170 | 64.3% | CHI 34 – SEA 17 |
| WIN | GB ML | -180 | 63.8% | CAR 19 – GB 27 |
| WIN | TB ML | -130 | 54.3% | ATL 0 – TB 16 |
| WIN | BUF ML | -162 | 64.9% | BAL 10 – BUF 36 |
| WIN | PIT ML | -180 | 66.5% | CLE 6 – PIT 27 |
| WIN | DEN +1 | -108 | 53.3% | KC 24 – DEN 28 |
| LOSS | NYJ ML | -125 | 53.0% | LV 38 – NYJ 33 |
| WIN | DET ML | -170 | 58.7% | MIN 15 – DET 19 |
| WIN | WAS ML | -265 | 63.9% | PHI 10 – WAS 27 |
One unit per bet at the published price. The safest-bets record counts the 5 highest-probability sides each week — the ones the Safest tab leads with. Long shots (parlays, win + kicker combos, the lottery ticket) are graded on their own lines of the ledger and on the board's Record tab.
About these picks
What is the free pick?
The most likely winner on the NFL board this week that is still priced in your favour: a moneyline between -250 and +250 where our number — the model blended with the market price — beats the sportsbook's price even after the book's cut (if no moneyline qualifies, the most likely spread or total that does). It is chosen when the week's board is first published, kept as published, and graded in public after the game like every other pick. Through Week 2 of 2026 the free pick was the single most likely side on the board instead; those are shown as they were published.
Where do the probabilities come from?
A proprietary model projects every game's margin and total from team strength, recent form, injuries and matchups, then blends its raw probability with the price the sportsbooks are offering. The blended number is what we publish; the raw model on its own would call winners a touch less often than the closing line, which is why the market is part of the number.
Does a high probability mean the bet is safe?
No. 64.3% is a probability, not a promise: the other side happens. Favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones.